OBAMA DOWN AMONG MILLENNIALS – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  That's a term you'll hear more and more – the millennials, those voters under 30.  That group has been part of Obama's political base, but, as Michael Barone points out, it is slipping away, something that can have a devastating effect on the president's reelection prospects: 

...white Millennials have been moving away from the Democrats. The Democratic edge in party identification among white Millennials dropped from 7 points in 2008 to 3 points in 2009 to a 1-point Republican edge in 2010 and an 11-point Republican lead in 2011.

There have been shifts of similar magnitude among whites who are low-income, who have no more than a high school education, and who live in the Midwest.

It's not hard to come up with plausible reasons for these changes.  Obama campaigned as the champion of "hope and change" in 2008 and assured crowds of young people that "we are the change we are seeking."

But the change they have seen is anything but hopeful. Youth unemployment rates have been at historic highs. Young people have seen their college degrees produce little in the way of job offers.

They are choosing more often to keep living with their parents. From the Obama Democrats they have gotten only a promise that "children" up to age 26 can stay on mommy and daddy's health insurance plans.

In the wake of the 2008 election, I argued that there was a tension between the way Millennials lived their lives -- creating their own iPod playlists, designing their own Facebook pages -- and the one-size-fits-all, industrial-era welfare-state policies of the Obama Democrats.

Instead of allowing Millennials space in which they can choose their own futures, the Obama Democrats' policies have produced a low-growth economy in which their alternatives are limited and they are forced to make do with what they can scrounge.

COMMENT:   All right, Republicans, this is a group willing to be convinced.  What have you got?  What are you offering?  Obama is losing the millennials, but can get them back.  Remember that he is a superb campaigner.  Republicans historically have been slow to engage anyone who wasn't already a Republican.  You know, dearies, we really don't like these pushy people who aren't in the club.  But Republicans have opportunities that are golden.  I think there are some potential presidential nominees who have the spark that can ignite the millennials...if the party gives them the chance.

July 27, 2011